Most people check a forecast for rain or snow. Birders check one for finches. Every fall, a team of volunteers and biologists releases a prediction of which northern birds are likely to leave the boreal forest and head south for winter, and this year's forecast is already out.
If you've ever wondered why some winters your feeders are packed with redpolls and siskins and other winters you barely see a finch, the forecast has the answer. And this year's looks like it could make for an interesting season.
A Forecast Built From Trees
The Winter Finch Forecast comes from the Finch Research Network, and this year marks its 28th edition. It was begun by Ron Pittaway, and biologist Tyler Hoar has written it in recent years. The method is surprisingly simple. Volunteers across the boreal forest check the seed, cone, and berry crops on trees, and the forecasters use that information to predict where northern finches will go.
The logic is straightforward. Winter finches such as Pine Siskins, crossbills, redpolls, and grosbeaks spend most of the year deep in the northern forest, far from roads and people. When there's plenty of food up there, they stay put. When the crops fail, they travel in search of a meal, and that movement is called an irruption. Some irruptions send birds hundreds or even thousands of miles south of where they'd normally be.
What This Year's Forecast Says
The big headline is poor seed crops across a huge area of the central boreal forest. That's likely to push finches out of the forest and into eastern Canada, the Great Lakes region, and the northeastern United States.
There's a twist, though. Seed crops in the northeastern conifer forests are plentiful this year, and northern white cedar is doing especially well. Because of that, the forecasters expect many finches to spend more time in the woods than at feeders. So if you're hoping to see them, your best bet may be to get outside and look at natural food sources as well as your feeders.
A First for the Central and Western U.S.
This year's forecast also includes something new. For the first time, the network is piloting an Irruption Alert for the central United States, from the Mississippi River to the Rockies, and for the western states.
Part of the reasoning is that spruce crops look reasonably good across a large area stretching from northern British Columbia to Alaska. If a small irruption develops this winter, the forecasters say the central region has as good a chance of seeing birds as the East, or possibly better. Their alert also calls for a strong winter across the valleys of the Pacific Northwest and California and across the interior West. It's an experimental forecast, so it's worth treating as a bonus, but it's exciting news for birders west of the Appalachians who rarely get a finch forecast of their own.
Who Might Show Up
The forecast covers a group of northern birds, including Purple Finches, Pine Siskins, Evening Grosbeaks, Pine Grosbeaks, both kinds of crossbills, and Common and Hoary Redpolls. It also tracks Red-breasted Nuthatches, Blue Jays, and Bohemian Waxwings, which tend to move in the same years.
Because the details differ by species and region, the best way to know what to watch for in your area is to read the full forecast on the Finch Research Network's website. It lays out each species and explains how the seed crops affect where they're likely to go.
How to Get Ready
- Look beyond the feeder. Check natural food sources like spruce and cedar trees, birches, crabapples, and berry bushes, especially in places where they grow in clusters.
- Stock a few seed types. Black oil sunflower seeds attract many winter finches, and nyjer is a favorite of siskins and redpolls.
- Keep feeders clean. Hungry flocks can pack tightly, so washing feeders regularly helps keep birds healthy.
- Log your sightings. Add finches to eBird so scientists can track where the flight actually goes and compare it to the forecast.
- Listen for flight calls. Finches often announce themselves with sharp, chattering calls long before you spot them overhead.
Keep Your Eyes Open
A forecast is a prediction, not a promise. Some winters surprise forecasters in both directions, and the final picture often isn't clear until early winter. That uncertainty is part of the fun. It means that every cold snap and every feeder visit holds a little extra possibility.
So keep your binoculars handy this season. A flock of tiny northern wanderers may be about to arrive on your doorstep.
Have you seen any early winter finches this year? Tell us what you've spotted.
1 comment
No bird exist where I live.